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Wealth & retirement · super (composes 3 primitives)

Debt avalanche vs snowball

Type your debts. We simulate avalanche (target highest APR first) and snowball (target smallest balance first) month-by-month, surface total interest paid + months to zero for both, and surface the tradeoff: avalanche always wins on dollars, snowball usually wins on motivation.

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Inputs

Result

Avalanche saves $0 of interest over snowball — 63 mo vs 63 mo to debt-free.

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No meaningful difference: Avalanche and snowball converge on this debt mix. Pick the one you'll actually do.

  1. 1

    Total debt balance

    $46,500

    3 debts combined

  2. 2

    Avalanche (highest APR first)

    63 months · $7,841 interest

    Order: Credit card → Auto loan → Student loan

  3. 3

    Snowball (smallest balance first)

    63 months · $7,841 interest

    Order: Credit card → Auto loan → Student loan

  4. 4

    Avalanche savings

    $0

    0 months faster too

  5. 5

    First debt eliminated (avalanche)

    Credit card

    Highest-APR debt is the math-optimal target

  6. 6

    First debt eliminated (snowball)

    Credit card

    Smallest balance gets eliminated fastest — psychology win, even if costs more

Assumptions & notes
  • Simulation runs 63-month month-by-month with min payments + extra applied to the target debt. Interest accrues monthly on each debt's balance.
  • Avalanche maximizes math; snowball maximizes momentum. Real-world data from Northwestern and HBR shows snowball followers stick with plans longer.
  • Refinance / consolidation can change the answer — check whether a 0% balance transfer or personal loan beats either strategy.

Multi-scenario comparison

What if — ±20% on one input

ScenarioDebt 1 balanceHeadlineΔ vs baselineMagnitude
−20% (cautious)$6,800Avalanche saves $0 of interest over snowball — 61 mo vs 61 mo to debt-free.$-1,700
Baseline$8,500Avalanche saves $0 of interest over snowball — 63 mo vs 63 mo to debt-free.0
+20% (aggressive)$10,200Avalanche saves $0 of interest over snowball — 65 mo vs 65 mo to debt-free.+$1,700

Try the input with the highest sensitivity (above). The Δ column shows the dollar swing from a 20% move — that's how much room you have for a counter, raise, or hedge.

Goal seek

Solve for an input value

Pick the input you want to vary and the output you care about. We'll find the input value that gets you to the target. Bisection-based; converges in < 50 iterations.

Monte Carlo simulation

Distribution under input uncertainty (500 trials)

We perturb every numeric input with normal-distributed noise (10–25% sigma depending on input type) and run 500 compute trials. The output is a probability distribution, not a single number — closer to how finance actually works.

Most-leveraged inputs (sensitivity analysis)

Where to focus — what moves the answer most

Each input perturbed ±10%; measured impact on Total debt balance. Higher elasticity = bigger lever.

  1. 1

    Debt 3 balance

    Elasticity 0.47× — 10% change in this input increases Total debt balance by 4.7%.

  2. 2

    Debt 2 balance

    Elasticity 0.34× — 10% change in this input increases Total debt balance by 3.4%.

  3. 3

    Debt 1 balance

    Elasticity 0.18× — 10% change in this input increases Total debt balance by 1.8%.

  4. 4

    Debt 1 APR (%)

    Elasticity 0.00× — 10% change in this input affects Total debt balance by 0.0%.

ShowMath is the only calc site that surfaces this. Adjust the highest-leverage input first — that's where small moves create big results.

Chain payload (for the 3D constellation)
{
  "slug": "debt-avalanche-vs-snowball",
  "depth": 1,
  "primitives": [
    "debt-avalanche-calculator",
    "debt-snowball-calculator",
    "debt-payoff-comparison"
  ],
  "composes": [],
  "chain": [
    {
      "key": "total_balance",
      "label": "Total debt balance",
      "numeric": 46500
    },
    {
      "key": "avalanche",
      "label": "Avalanche (highest APR first)",
      "primitive": "debt-avalanche-calculator",
      "numeric": 7841.06357797545
    },
    {
      "key": "snowball",
      "label": "Snowball (smallest balance first)",
      "primitive": "debt-snowball-calculator",
      "numeric": 7841.06357797545
    },
    {
      "key": "interest_delta",
      "label": "Avalanche savings",
      "numeric": 0
    },
    {
      "key": "first_win_avalanche",
      "label": "First debt eliminated (avalanche)",
      "numeric": 0
    },
    {
      "key": "first_win_snowball",
      "label": "First debt eliminated (snowball)",
      "numeric": 0
    }
  ]
}

The chain explained

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